Inside Deloitte’s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook: Optimism, Capital Flows, and Emerging Opportunities
Each year, Deloitte releases one of the most anticipated sentiment reports in the commercial real estate (CRE) world. Their 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook offers a rare global snapshot of how industry leaders—those who own, operate, and invest in billions of dollars’ worth of real estate—are feeling about the future.
This year’s conversation with John D’Angelo, Real Estate Solutions Leader at Deloitte, revealed several surprising insights about global sentiment, capital flows, office recovery, AI, and where investors see the biggest opportunities ahead.
A Global Survey from Those Closest to the Market
Deloitte’s annual sentiment report draws from a robust survey of 850 C-suite executives at real estate companies with more than $250 million in assets under management. Respondents include both operators and investors, spanning 13 countries.
The survey is conducted in late June and early July and released in Q3—making it a timely reflection of market conditions.
This year’s participation was the highest ever, providing a deeper window into global thinking across the CRE landscape.
Sentiment: Surprisingly Strong Despite a Bumpy Year
Unlike 2024, which was filled with optimism around gradual interest-rate cuts, market conditions in early 2025 brought more volatility and uncertainty. Rates didn’t decline as many economists expected, and geopolitical and tariff-related disruptions created headwinds.
Despite this, sentiment dipped only slightly—and remains surprisingly positive.
According to D’Angelo, this resilience reflects a broader understanding that CRE fundamentals remain solid, dry powder is abundant, and many valuation resets have already worked their way through the system. For many leaders, the question isn’t if performance will rebound but when.
Where Global Capital Wants to Go
One of the most notable findings is where global investors plan to allocate capital.
A Big Shift Toward the U.S.
The U.S. jumped from attracting 11% of global planned real estate investment last year to 16% this year—despite tariffs, political uncertainty, and short-term disruptions. Stability, transparency, and growth potential continue to make the U.S. highly appealing.
India and the U.K. also ranked strongly.
Property Types Drawing the Most Investment
When respondents were asked where they expect the best returns, the top four sectors were clear:
Digital Economy Real Estate
Data centers and cell towers continue to dominate, thanks to cloud expansion, data consumption, and AI-driven compute demand.Logistics
Modern logistics facilities remain critical to global supply chains.Manufacturing
As “America First” and reshoring policies push industrial production back home, manufacturing facilities have taken a top spot.Multifamily
Despite new deliveries in some markets, multifamily remains one of the strongest long-term asset classes.
And What About Office?
Office sentiment is improving—significantly.
Both suburban and CBD office saw increasing interest for the second year in a row.
Leasing activity and renewals are strengthening as “return to office” stops being a debate and becomes the new normal. Most companies now expect employees to be in the office the majority of the week, even if Fridays remain quiet.
For investors, this stabilization has put office back in the conversation.
Capital Availability: The Top Concern
Even as many lenders have returned to the market, respondents ranked availability and cost of capital as their top concerns.
The disconnect may reflect the difference between today’s lending environment and the summer conditions in which the survey was taken.
Interest rates staying higher for longer was another key worry.
Debt Maturities: Only 1 in 5 Expect to Pay Off Loans in Full
One of the most eye-opening findings involves how owners expect to handle upcoming loan maturities:
20% plan to pay off loans in full
15% expect to hand back the keys
35% expect to negotiate extensions or modifications
The rest expect to refinance
This means 80% of owners expect to do something other than pay off their loan at maturity, signaling more workouts, restructurings, and creative solutions ahead.
Valuations and Appraisals: A Market in Transition
Respondents across geographies expressed concern about traditional appraisal methods.
With fewer transactions over the past two years, comparable data can be scarce or outdated, making traditional valuation approaches less reliable.
The message:
Appraisal numbers are only the starting point. Real market knowledge is essential.
AI Adoption: More Realistic Expectations
While last year respondents claimed AI was transforming their operations, this year the responses were far more grounded:
About 50% report challenges or limited impact
Only 10–11% say AI has meaningfully transformed performance
This lines up more accurately with what the industry is actually experiencing.
AI has promise, but human expertise and oversight remain critical—especially in transactions, underwriting, and legal documents. As one anecdote showed, AI-generated letters of intent can backfire if not reviewed and polished by humans.
Where the Best Opportunities Lie Today
According to DiAngelo—and reflected by survey data—opportunities today favor:
1. Smaller, Under-the-Radar Deals
Especially for investors nimble enough to act in smaller increments. These assets may have real cash flow and strong fundamentals but fall outside the scope of large institutions.
2. Markets With Sharp Drops in New Supply
This is a major theme across sectors:
Office construction is at historic lows
In some multifamily markets, new supply has fallen off a cliff
Replacement costs make new development difficult, giving existing assets an advantage
Investors who buy into markets with virtually no new pipeline could see meaningful rent growth and value appreciation over the next 24–36 months as demand meets limited supply.
A Sensible Optimism Moving Forward
Despite a volatile year, CRE leaders remain optimistic—and with good reason. Fundamentals across many asset classes are strong, capital is on the lookout for opportunities, and valuation resets may soon be behind us.
With careful underwriting, strategic positioning, and a focus on real cash flow, the next year could offer exceptional opportunities for those ready to move while others hesitate.
If you’d like the direct link to Deloitte’s full report, it’s available at CREshow.com.
About the Author: Michael Bull, CCIM, is the host of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, Creator of Commercial Agent Success Strategies, and founder of Bull Realty, a regional commercial real estate brokerage firm headquartered in Atlanta founded 28 years ago. The firm provides agents and clients regional expertise and worldwide reach as an affiliate of TCN Worldwide.